Steve Lavin has the Big Apple thinking Big Dance.
Photo credit New York Daily News.
It’s the time of seasonnnn for bub-bles…While that is a little play on the famous Zombies’ tune, this time of year in college basketball is the month of the bubble. Every team in the country is striving to gain an NCAA bid, be it by an auto-lock from a conference championship, spectacular play throughout the season, or an eye-opening February. ESPN and other networks talk a lot about mid-majors who are trying to impress the voters and NCAA Tournament selection committee, but one also has to look at middle-of-the-road BCS conference teams as well. And with that let’s jump right into the position(s) of several Big East teams who are looking to get off of, stay on, or get enough accomplished to be mentioned in the “Bubble Watch.”
BIG EAST LOCKS: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Connecticut, Louisville, Syracuse
ON THE BUBBLE:
St. John’s (16-9, 8-5) Current Big East standing: 7 Since the start of February: (4-1) Last 10 games: (6-4)
RPI: 16 Strength of Schedule: 2
Bubble Status: Almost a lock.
With the type of production and results from the Red Storm this year, one would think Steve Lavin was a seasoned coaching veteran who hasn’t missed a beat over the last decade. However, Lavin is just getting back to his former UCLA-self and has this senior-laden squad making noise in NYC for the first time in recent memory. Early season losses to St. Bonaventure and Fordham could have kept this team from the Big Dance, but over the last month and a half the Johnnies have scored major wins against Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke (ranked #1 at the time), UConn, and two key road wins at West Virginia and Marquette. From having seen St. John’s in action myself this year, when this team is firing on all cylinders and is able to control tempo with their up-and-down pace, they are nearly impossible to beat. Now all St. John’s needs to cap off a rather surprising season is to hold steady in their last five games with matches against Seton Hall, USF, and lowly DePaul…plus there is room for another marquee victory with games against Pittsburgh and Villanova.
West Virginia (16-9, 7-6) Current Big East standing: T-9 Since the start of February: (2-3) Last 10 games: (5-5)
RPI: 23 Strength of schedule: 3
Bubble Status: High-bubble team.
This time last month West Virginia was celebrating a huge non-conference victory over Top 10 Purdue. But oh what a difference thirty days can make. The Mountaineers followed that Purdue win with a shocking loss to in-state rival Marshall (out-doing a loss at ACC bottom feeder Miami) and have looked out-of-sync offensively in recent Big East games. Troubled shooting guard Casey Mitchell returned to action recently and played exceptionally at Syracuse on Monday night, but it is his teammates that are having serious problems finding the net. While coach Bob Huggins can still rest on big victories against Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Purdue, and at Cincinnati; his Mountaineers probably wish they had sealed the deal in single-digit losses to Minnesota (-4), Pittsburgh (-5), at Marquette (-4), and at Louisville (-4) to give them a better profile for March. West Virginia boasts the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the Big East with four ranked teams remaining, plus an always strenuous trip to Rutgers.
Cincinnati (20-6, 7-6) Current Big East standing: T-9 Since the start of February: (2-2) Last 10 games: (5-5)
RPI: 47 Strength of schedule: 34
Bubble Status: High-bubble team.
Almost any time a Big East team has 20+ wins in a season (albeit with 5 games to play) it is a pretty good bet that team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament…almost. The only problem here is that Cincinnati played nearly no one out-of-conference, sans for a 20 point mauling of cross-town rival Xavier. Mick Cronin’s Bearcats started strong with a sterling 15-0 record, however since that time not much has gone right for Cincinnati in the Big East as the team has gone 5-6 over their last 11 games. Most of Cincy’s problems have come on the road against Top 25 teams, but every one of those losses came by double digits. Luckily the Bearcats defeated Louisville at home on Wednesday and own a two point victory at St. John’s as well. While I can’t imagine Cincy not making the Big Dance, they do need to get another quality W to really put them in contention…and that could come in a 2 games series with Georgetown or when UConn visits the Queen City.
Marquette (15-11, 6-7) Current Big East standing: 11 Since the start of February: (1-3) Last 10 games: (4-6)
RPI: 66 Strength of schedule: 9
Bubble Status: Squarely on the bubble.
Like West Virginia, Marquette has found the sledding a bit tougher over the last half of the season. Since an 18 point pummeling of Notre Dame, the Golden Eagles fell at Louisville by one (following a 15 point lead late in the game) and can only point to a home victory over struggling Syracuse as a meaningful victory. As in past seasons, Marquette has had their fair share of tough losses with single-digit setbacks against Duke (-5), Gonzaga (-3), Wisconsin (-5), UConn (-8), at Vanderbilt (-1), at Pittsburgh (-8), at Villanova (-5), at Notre Dame (-5), and at Georgetown (-9). Though it may seem a bit ridiculous that I listed all of those losses, it goes to show that this team has been very close to winning a handful of these games and that they clearly have the talent and coaching to compete with nearly anyone. Marquette does boast wins of Notre Dame, Syracuse, and West Virginia (all in Milwaukee) but the chances to get another notable victory are running out with only an away game with UConn providing for NCAA resume material. Buzz William’s needs to get his squad to at least 19 wins by season’s end for his squad to go dancing and that could very well happen with two games remaining against Seton Hall and home dates with Providence and Cincinnati.
Rankings and standings courtesy ESPN.com, RPI Rankings from RealTimeRPI.com, and Strength of schedule from teamrankings.com.
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